International tourism shows ‘resilience’ in face of Middle East disruption
International tourism showed ‘continued resilience’ in the first quarter of 2026, with a 2% increase in arrivals, according to new data released by UN Tourism
However, the organisation has revised its outlook for the year, warning that growth could fall short of its original forecast due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising travel costs.
A total of 307 million people travelled internationally during the first three months of the year, around six million more than during the same period in 2025.
Growth slowed significantly in March, when international arrivals rose by just 0.4%, following 2.5% cumulative gains in January and February.
UN Tourism now expects international arrivals growth to come in one to two percentage points below its original forecast of 3% to 4% for 2026.
In Q1, Europe recorded a 4% increase in international arrivals, while Africa also saw growth of 4%. The Americas reported a 2% rise and Asia-Pacific arrivals increased by 3%.
The Middle East was the only region to record a decline, with arrivals falling 14% during the quarter.
According to IATA, international air traffic rose 4% during the first quarter, although traffic in the Middle East fell 16%.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said: “The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation.
“This is placing pressure on travelers, businesses and destinations alike. Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million people traveling internationally, a 2% increase on last year.
“At a time of growing geopolitical and economic pressure, this reinforces tourism’s wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself.”
The latest UN Tourism Confidence Index, which monitors sentiment by 300 tourism professionals around the world, pointed to ‘cautious optimism’ for the upcoming northern hemisphere summer season.